100 day MA at 103.544

Last week, the price of the USDJPY moved above the 100 day moving average for the first time since early February. The price closed above the moving average line on Thursday, but on Friday that break was reversed and not only was the 100 day broken but also the 100 hour MA and a trend line in sloppy NY afternoon trading.

Today the pair gapped higher (from the close), reversed and took out the Friday lows. However, that break was not accompanied by momentum selling. So the pair started to "rebulid" a bullish case. For example,

  • The price moved back above the 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above),,
  • The price tested the 100 hour moving average and bounced
  • The price extended back above the broken trend line
  • The price moved back above the 100 day MA (see "D1 MA: 100..." currently at 103.545 in the chart above)
  • Finally, the price has tested that MA line and stayed above.

The most important bullish development for me is the move back above the 100 day MA. Remember, the USDJPY had not traded above the 100 day moving average since early February. Last Thursday's break was something not done in quite a while. Now the price back above the 100 day moving average, the buyers have a chance to redeem themselves by staying above the key moving average level.

The same rules apply. That is, if the price can stay above the 100 day moving average, the bulls/buyers remain in control. On the contrary, on a failure and a move back below the 100 day moving average (currently at 103.545), I would not be surprised if the buyers turn back into sellers and push the price to the downside.

Second chance for the buyers to make a stand.