Trend line and 100 and 200 bar MA on 4-hour chart tested
As Fed's Lockhart speaks and Fed's Brainard due to speak in the US afternoon (1 PM ET/1700 GMT), the USDJPY has fallen below trend line support and below the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 4-hour chart. The price has also moved below swing levels in the 101.91-95 area.
Looking at the hourly chart above, the trend line and 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart cuts across at the 101.85 level while the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is at 101.87. A little further up are the swing low/high levels going back to early September (see red circles). Those levels come between 101.91 and 101.95.
The price break did see a corrective move back above the aforementioned levels - so traders might be sniffing at buying, but we are currently back below the 101.85-95 area. Stay below and the sellers remain in control/ the buyers get increasingly nervous. If the price is able to push above (from a more robust buyer), then some of the downward pressure is relieved at least temporarily for the pair (the 102.10 where the 100 MA is found will become the next hurdle).
On the downside, with the fall lower, the pair is in the choppy trading area from September 7 and 8th. The swing low from September 8 came in at 101.40. The low from September 7th was at 101.179.
