What levels are in play.

As Ryan and BK go "Live", here are some levels I will be looking at and why.

The EURUSD is below the 100 and 200 hour MA (blue and green lines) but that can change on the event of course. A much weaker report (probably less than 120K - maybe 100K- and a pick up in the unemployment rate) will be the catalysts for a move back higher. We really do not know what will be the tipping point, but there will be a spike. So be careful. I would rather wait for a retracement (or even wait even longer and let the bar room brawl finish).

Anyway, a move above the 100 and 200 bar MA, will be a bullish shift.

  • Stay above and the bulls are more in control. Those levels come in at 1.1155 area. Obviously we are right on top of that level.
  • The next target to get through would be the topside trend line. I know we moved above yesterday, and there was some ups and downs during Draghi, but the last test on the bottom side of the line held. So traders lined up against it. A move above will be eyed. That comes in at 1.1171.
  • The next important level comes in at the 100 day MA at 1.11818.
  • Finally, the 1.1214-18 area. That level has been solid the last two tests. It also was the lows from April. The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. That increases the levels importance.

A move above that area is only 75 pips. So it is not that far away. A move above that final area should open up the upside. Once again, traders will ideally like to see the price get and stay above that level (risk level). If the price goes above and then fails, it may lead to a fast break the other way. Be aware. At the very least, the waters are more muddy.

On the downside, the close trend line comes in at 1.1133. A move below that will look toward the lows from this week/last week and the key 200 day MA at the 1.10972. The level is also near a lower trendline on the daily chart (see chart below). Needless to say, that will be the key level on the downside. Get below, and the traders will have their bearish caps firmly on. The level is only about 55 pips from the currently level. So is not that far away.

Below that level and the:

  • 1.1067 is the 50% of the move up from the December 2015 low. The 1.1058 is the low from March 16.
  • Below that and there really isn't a whole lot until 1.0980 area. and the 1.09377.

The key level on the downside for trading is a move below that 200 day MA and trend line. Get below and stay below will be what traders will eye.