Back toward unchanged
The GBPUSD fell below support at the 200 bar MA (green line at 1.3163) after testing it yesterday and again earlier today. That break sent the pair lower as should happen (see prior post from earlier today).
The momentum took the pair to a low of 1.31375 where selling dried up. There was better support at the 1.3126, and lower than that against a lower trend line around the 1.31150 level (see hourly chart above), but the dollar started to reverse lower against the EURUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF, so the buyers came in vs the GBP too (GBPUSD moved higher).
In addition, the EURGBP - around the time of the trough in the GBPUSD - was peaking against a trend line. That also helped to reverse the GBPUSDs bias back higher (above the MA level) and the pair has retested the 1.3200 level.
What now?
Well, the break of the MA that held twice earlier and failure muddies the water a bit for the trend. With the BOE tomorrow (no change expected but words from the statement will be eyed), I would expect that the market settles with the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour acting once again as support at 1.3163 and the 100 be MA on the 4-hour chart/50% retracement/old swing lows acting as pretty good resistance up at the 1.3140 area.
We sit between those levels now and near unchanged levels. You can flip a coin as to the next 30-40 pip move. But I would expect the aforementioned levels to find either willing sellers or willing buyers whichever side the market takes it.
