An end of month kinda day

The GBPUSD is having an end of day month kinda day as it moves up and down. The correction of the move down from yesterday's high to the low, stalled at the 38.2% (at 1.54473). Keeping a lid there is showing the sellers from yesterday are trying to keep control.

The current price is back below the 200 hour MA (green line). The price has traded above and below the 200 hour MA in trading today (at 1.5429 currently).

On the bearish side,

  • The price is higher on the day (closed at 1.5402)
  • The price fell below trend line support but recovered back above the line (currently at 1.5403 - see chart above). This is a bit of disappointment for the sellers looking for increased momentum on the break and the new lows.

The trend for the pair off the hourly chart still says higher, but the momentum faded yesterday when the price stalled near the topside trend line and dollar buying led to the trend move lower.

Today, with the 38.2% of that move down holding, the corrective sellers have not given up on their probe for lower levels. However, the up and down action today suggests a "trading market" for today. The week end and month end flows may be an influence contributing to this action.

I do give the sellers kudos for keeping the lid on the correction and moving back below the 200 hour MA (that is short term risk for traders). However, there is that trend line that needs to be broken and stayed below to give the sellers more confidence I will want to see that line broken at 1.5403 (and might as well get and stay below 1.54000 too). Failure to do, it and expect continued rotation back and forth.