Tests trend line in early NY trading

The EURUSD dipped to a new move low in trading early in the NY session (lowest level since July 27th), but with little follow through momentum. The price has been slowly moving higher and currently tests a trend line connecting highs from Oct 10 and Oct 14 at 1.1003 after the weaker than expected Empire manufacturing data. The 38.2% of the move down from Thursday's high comes in at 1.0999. Sellers are leaning on the first look. On a break, the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) will likely be a potential target to next wander toward. That MA comes in at 1.1022 currently. The EURUSD has not traded above the 100 hour MA since October 10th - so look for sellers on a test. If sellers at trend line keep a lid on the pair, the 1.0984 (low from Thursday) will be a level to get to - and through. That area has been holding the low over the last 4-hours.

There is Industrial production and capacity utilization coming out at 9:15 AM /1315 GMT. If they do not surprise look the market to chop around. Fed's Stanley Fischer speaks at 12:15 PM ET/1615 GMT. He at one point said that there could be two tightenings in 2016 (I think it was at Jackson Hole not too long ago). That is likely down to one at this point (he was not a dissenter of course). However, given Yellen's comments on Friday that a "high pressure" economy (meaning letting it get hotter) might be appropriate, it will be interesting to see if Fischer follows her thinking. That would imply a more hands off Fed even if inflation were to start to pick up.

The pair is trading above the trend line now (as I type. We should see that test of the 100 hour MA now..