Summer Monday morning after failed coup attempt and more random gun violence in the US. Trump show begins today....
The EURUSD opened higher -recovering the losses from the late Friday coup sell off. That fall sent the pair toward the lower extreme of the 14 day trading range near the 1.1023-27 area. The EURUSD has traded below that extreme on the hourly chart but the lowest close was the 1.1023 level (on a hourly basis). There was a swing low around the 1.1027 area.
The high price today extended to 1.1072. The low - made in the London session - fell to 1.1037. The total range for the day is a pathetic 35 pips.
The bias for the pair is more bearish but traders must realize that with the pair trading mostly between 1.1023 and 1.1159, over 14 days, the tide can swing back out (or in depending on your point of view) on a whim.
For me, staying below the 1.1077-93 is a ceiling area. The 1.1077 is the 200 hour MA, the 1.1093 is the 50% of the 14 day range. In between are the 200 day MA, the 100 hour MA, the 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart. In other words, there is your amount of technical levels between those two extremes.
Today the high fell short of fhe 1.1077 lower extreme. So bears remain in control. Having said that the low today fell short of the lower target at 1.1023-27 (low reached 1.1037). So intraday traders can point either way.
It is a coin flip as we trade in the middle. At some point, there will be a break and a run. Can we muster enough energy on a summer Monday after a failed coup, another sad gun violence on police and the Trump convention to come? The price sitting in the middle of the close extremes says to me "the market" is sitting and thinking and watching for a catalyst. Do you see anything?
