Something has to give...right?
The EURUSD has limped along in a 29 pip trading range which has taken the pair:
- Above a trend line -mostly (see chart below),
- Below a moving average - mostly (the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is at 1.11673 currently), and
- Above and below a couple 50% retracement levels. The first is the 50% of the move up from the July 25 low (at 1.11586) and the second is the 50% of the 2016 trading range (at 1.1162).
The low today extended to 1.1140 while the high extended to 1.11687.
There is some data out later at 10 AM ET in the NY session. Maybe the push above or below the extremes happens then. Maybe it comes before...
Let's face it, the market is a bit unsure at the moment. It has not made up it's mind. What we will be looking for is a move - a break - with momentum. That 29 pip trading range will be extended and perhaps pushed even more. But the catalyst is still to be determined. Be patient. Have a bias, trade the extremes and look for the break. The price action does not lie. Don't have a bias (Fed still up in the air?), you can wait for the break and go with the flow. If it runs, great. If it breaks and fails, risking a little.
We need that push out of the next though. It will come.
