38 pips from low to high

The EURUSD is trading in a tiny range for the day of 38 pips. The low is 1.0855 and the high 1.0893. There was a 26 pip trading range on the US Thanksgiving Day holiday. In the Christmas day week, the range was near the range seen today. There were other times in the past when traders arrived for the NY session and the ranges were equally as narrow, but they expanded to something larger. That is what we look for today.

Looking at the 5-minute chart for bias clues:

  1. The close was 1.08716
  2. The midpoint is 1.08739
  3. The 100 bar MA is at 1.08747
  4. The 200 bar MA is at 1.0878

The current price is right in the midst of that cluster at 1.10873. Continuing:

  1. There are lower lows today
  2. The low from yesterday was taken out on 4 separate occasions
  3. There are lower highs too
  4. The high today took out the swing high off the low from yesterday

Looking at the hourly chart, the price has been stalling at a lower trend line. So there has been "support buyers" against the low. Yesterday there was a failed break below that trend line.

The market can go either way. I am looking at the yellow area between 1.0869 and 1.0878 as a neutral area (it is in the middle after all and there are a cluster of things there). If we move below, look for bears to stay in control. A break of the lower trend line on the hourly chart will be eyed. If the prices goes above, the sellers which have kept the price below the area over the last few hours, should turn the beat around (that is what will be watching for).

When the range is so narrow, a little wiggle here or there can tip the apple cart one way or the other but at 38 pips, the range should be extended at some point today. So expect either a move below 1.08548 or a move above 1.0893.