With a more bearish bias...

The EURUSD has tried to make the 200 day MA (at 1.1095) a big deal this week.

The MA held support on Monday against the MA level. It fell below it on Tuesday (and stayed below). Yesterday, the price made new lows at 1.1028, rallied up to the 200 day MA, and pushed above going into the close - only to run into another MA. This one the 100 hour MA at 1.1107 (see blue line in the chart above). Although there was a late day rally, the price activity yesterday was up and down.

Today we are seeing more of the up and down as the market seems to be content to let the cards fall tomorrow and see which way the pair runs off the employment data tomorrow. Moving away from the 200 day MA/100 hour MA might be the logical "safe house" place to hang around until that time.

What is giving the pair a more bearish slant is the 100 hour MA at 1.1107 which is putting a lid on trading yesterday and again today.

The last 7 trading days has seen the EURUSD hang between a low of 1.1023 and a high of 1.11856. That is 162 pips which is not a lot. The midpoint of that range is 1.1104 - not far from the congestion from the aforementioned MAs. That too is a slight negative (staying below the 50%).

Needless to say, that area will be a key area through the employment report tomorrow. Move above and the bulls take more control. Stay below and the market should look to move away and go test lower levels.

Is it a great day to trade today?

It certainly does not seem so does it unless you want to scalp a little here and there (flip a coin?). But should it go your way, it is hard to see much action.

As a point of reference, last month on this day (Thursday before employment which of course was very weak). the price for the EURUSD on that Thursday fell after a better ADP report. The price moved back down toward the 100 and 200 hour MAs. Of course the employment report sent the pair sharply higher as it came in much weaker than expected. The price on the employment day went from a low of 1.1136 to a high of 1.1356.

A month later we are back below the low from that day but hanging around the same MA levels You can blame Brexit for that. Since Brexit, apart from a few price bars on the hourly chart, the price has remained below the midpoint of the Brexit day range at 1.1168. IF the price should rally back higher tomorrow, that level will be a level to get to and through (on another weak report).

On the downside for tomorrow, the 1.1023 level was a low from last Thursday. The low yesterday bottomed at 1.1028. A move below that area, will open the pair for a further slide lower.

Of course the report could come in neither hot nor cold. That would not bode well for the month of July trading prospects as traders sit and wait to see how the card fall from Brexit and the Fed.

PS EU Commission begins deficit sanctions procedure for Spain and Portugal has the EURUSD under more pressure over the last 10 minutes. Coming off Brexit, you can see how things like that can get the masses in the general public thinking "why not us too".