Employment later today
The AUDUSD fell below the 200 hour MA yesterday and raced to within 4 pips of the 50% retrcement level at 0.73259. The correction off that low went back to test the 200 hour MA (green line). The fall to the low today could not extend any lower than yesterday's low despite lower NAB business confidence (3 vs 5 last). Business conditions were better though at 10 vs 9 last month. A stronger stock market may have also contributed to risk trades and a better tone.
Technically, the pair has been able to climb above trend line resistance and also above a cluster of moving averages, including the 100 and 200 hour moving average and the 100 day moving average. All come between 0.7387 and 0.73980 currently. The current price at 0.7396 is between the levels. The market is in the neutral zone.
That is not too surprising given the FOMC decision has traders sitting and waiting. Later tonight the Australia employment report will be released. The expectations are for 15.0K employment change (vs 10.6K) and unemployment rate at 5.7% (vs 5.7% last month). Full time employment was -9.3K last moth and part time was +20K.
For traders it is really a coin toss. The MAs converging are all suggesting neutrality. The price is between them. The low yesterday stalled at the 50% of the move up from May 30 low. The high today, stalled within 4 pips of the 50% of the move down from the June 9 peak (the 50% is at 0.7417. The high today was 0.74208). If the price is going higher, look for the a break above that 50% level at 0.74167 (and stay above). If the we are going lower running away from the 100 hour MA at 0.7388 will be eyed.
If you want to wait for after employment (the best scenario is if the price stays contained in this area up to the event), and play the levels then, what should happen is the pair should look to move away from this neutrality area. That should provide some follow through buying or selling in the direction of the break.
