No change but door remains open

The RBA refrained from cutting rates when they met earlier today. The price moved higher on the news (it actually took off just before the decision raising the eyebrow of a few), The corrections off the peaks, held above the 38.2-50% retracement level - keeping the buyers in control (see yellow area in the 5 minute chart below)

Having said that there are 4 separate highs near the 0.7840 to 0.7843 level (see chart above).

This is keeping the price under the 0.7841-50 area where a number of swing highs found sellers February(see blue circles in the hourly chart below). There was a big break above that level last week (see red area in chart below), but the price break failed and tumbled lower. Staying below this level suggests that traders are cautious about going too high again - without a further catalyst at least.

That catalyst may come later tonight, when the AiG performance of services index for February will be released (5:30 PM ET) along with the GDP for the 4th quarter (7:30 PM ET). The expectation for GDP is for a 0.6% gain for the 4th quarter/2.5% year on year.

On March 5th (local time), retail sales and the trade balance come out (7:30 PM ET). Next week the employment change will be released.

With the RBA intimating a further cut is likely (or so the wordsmiths are saying), weaker data will keep that door open and should send the pair back lower. .

As a result, if there is a disappointment, look for a break of the 100 and 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines in the chart above) - currently at 0.7816 -to switch the bias to the downside. On a break, the next target would be the 0.7777 level ( 50% of the move up from the February 12 low). Further down, the 0.7719 to 0.7733, is a key floor area over the last month or so of trading.

On a stronger number, a move toward the highs seen last week at 0.7900 to 0.7912 would be the most obvious upside targets.