China Manufacturing PMI will also be an influence

The Australian GDP for the 1Q will be released at 0130 GMT/9:30 PM ET with the expectations that QoQ growth was 0.8% while YoY came in at 2.8%. This compares to 0.6% for the 4Q and 3.0% YoY. Yesterday, the Net exports component of GDP was released and it added 1.1% to GDP vs 0.7% estimate. The median estimate for GDP was 0.6%. It has been bumped up on the data. The AUDUSD rallied strongly on the news.

In the NA session today, the pair has lost over 50% of the day's gains but is rebounding into the last few hours of trading. The low has found some support ahead of the 100 and 200 hour MAs which come in at the 0.72047-073 area. The low for the NY session got as low as 0.72155. The pair currently trades at 0.72255.

Looking at the hourly chart above, the moving averages will be the line in the sand for bullish/bearish through the release. Move below it, would be more bearish. Stay above and it is more bullish.

Traders who like the long side could use the MA's below as a risk defining level. Alternatively, on a move higher, watch the 0.72513 level. This is the 200 day MA. Today, the pairs price moved above that level on two separate occasions with one hourly closing bar above. If the buyers are to take more control for a bigger move higher (after the release), getting and staying above that key 200 day MA will be eyed. Since May 18th, there has only been one hourly bar close above the 200 day MA. So it remains an important topside hurdle.

Traders who like the short side, would need to see the 100 and 200 hour MAs broken, to turn more of the bias back to the downside. A move below that level (and staying below that level), will target the 0.7171-75 level which was the low from May 18 AND other swing lows. There has been some time spent below that area- most recently during yesterday's trading - but once the price moved back above it, the level became support again.

Most of the trading since May 18th has been between 0.7172 below and 0.72513. That is not a huge range. So traders might be looking for a break and run.

China PMI data is out as well today.