No change expected, although they could cut...

The RBA will announce there latest decision on rates in the new trading day (10:30 PM ET/02300 GMT). The expectation is for no change at 2%, but with a bias for a cut to 1.75%. The lower quarterly CPI inflation report, slower growth from China and the recent mortgage rate hikes should keep the RBA leaning more toward increased stimulus. The question is the timing.

Technically, looking at the daily chart, the price in October tested and held against the 100 day moving average (blue line in the chart above). At the highs in October,, the price also tested the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the may high to the September low. That level came in at 0.7380. The 100 day moving average currently comes in at 0.72923. The current price is down at 0.7138. Even if the RBA refrains from easing I would not expect that 100 day MA to be tested today.

Upside targets on "no change" would be centered on the 0.7158 (50% of the move up from the end of September low - see daily chart above). The next level that would need to be cleared would be a topside trend line on the hourly chart at the 0.7168 level (and moving down), the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below currently at the 0.7178 level) and the 50% of the move down from the October 23 high at the 0.71787 level (see chart below). A move above that string of resistance would open up the upside and have traders looking toward a move above 0.7200 toward 0.7211.

On the downside, the AUDUSD did move above the 100 hour MA in the Asia-Pacific session and apart from one hourly bar above the MA line, the price has remained above that MA line. The current level for the 100 hour MA comes in at 0.7123. A move below that level, and staying below it, would give traders a license to sell. Below that and the 0.7100-10 area and the lows from Friday at 0.7083 and 0.7061 will be targeted. Below those levels and traders will be looking toward 0.7000. The low prices from end of September at 0.6935 and the beginning of September 0.6886 remain other targets but I would expect buyers on dips toward those levels.