Risk at 0.7531-59 now

The AUDUSD has been trending higher since bottoming in January. The move higher moved above what was a low floor going back to March and April of 2015. At that time the price bottomed in this area and bounced. When the level was broken in July, the last test (see blue circle 4) was against the yellow area before moving to Sept 2015 lows. Why is this important? Because the market will remember....

Fast forward to this month.

The price moved above this resistance area on March 10-11 but failed (see yellow area in the hourly chart below). On March 16-17 there was another breach (FOMC day) The corrective low on March 17 held the 0.7531 line (see blue circle 1 in chart below), and the price moved higher. You can see the price action after that break in the chart below (including the test of the topside trend line).

Yesterday and today, the yellow are has been breached again (so has the 200 hour MA - green line). Technically, on a correction higher from here, that is the level to look for sellers.

The current price is 0.7517. If the price moves higher from here I would expect sellers in the yellow area. with the 200 hour MA and the 0.7559 level risk levels for shorts.

The one stinking caveat is weekend risk. So if you want to pass and get to next week, that is fine (and I cannot blame you as terrorist risk may make the AUD a safe haven). But going forward, if the buying that took the price above the resistance level is a failed break, there should be sellers against the yellow area going forward. That is the line in the sand for the pair now.