A could more hurdles to more freedom, but they are tough ones

I was scanning through some charts and the AUDNZD has some interesting technical dynamics. The pair today is up rather nicely - breaking above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the June 24th high at 1.0532. The pair also moved above a couple of topside trend lines that cut across at 1.0510 and 1.0539 respectively (that are the current values). That is the bullish breaking news.

The hesitation comes from the stall against the June 15 high at 1.0546 level and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at the same level. The high today reached 1.0545 (currently trades at 1.0538.

So the break away from the 100 day MA and the trend lines was nice to see, BUT for more freedom, a move above the 200 bar MA will be eyed in the new trading day.

Are sellers leaning against the resistance level? Sure. Risk can be defined and limited. and traders like to lean when a moving average like the 200 bar, has NOT been breached in a while. The last time the price traded above that MA was back on April 27th.

Looking at the daily chart, the fall lower from early June saw the price move below an area that has defined a number of swing lows. That area comes between 1.0537 to 1.0575. If the buyers take the price above the 200 bar MA at the 1.0546 level will need to next get above the 1.0575 level.

It is hard when the price action has been trending to turn things around in an instant. But the levels in play are easily seen. Right now sellers remain in control. However, look for stops and a run higher on the break of the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.0546. Then keep an eye on the 1.0575 for the next bullish break.