Latest offering from the economists at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch courtesy of our friends at efxnews.com again
The October FOMC meeting is unlikely to deliver any major changes in policy or language, despite several Fed officials' recent attempts to characterize this meeting as "live", says Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
A flat distribution for liftoff.
"Without a forecast update or press conference scheduled, the focus will be on interpreting any revisions to the statement language. We expect relatively minor edits, however, and the interesting discussion won't appear until the minutes are released later in November. At this stage, we continue to see a relatively flat distribution for the timing of liftoff. December is our modal forecast for the first rate hike, but there is a significant chance that it could be later - depending on the upcoming data flow,"
No clear signals... once again
"The FOMC has tried to dissuade markets from expecting any explicit signals about upcoming policy changes, emphasizing data dependence. As such, we anticipate no meaningful changes to the policy guidance language. That should not be read as a sign the Fed will not hike in December; rather that they are keeping all options open. We still see a significant chance that the FOMC will hike this year, but we likely will need to wait for subsequent speeches to get any clarity on the timing of liftoff,"
I too retain my long-held view that interest rate hikes here in the UK or across the pond aren't going to happen any time soon
The US Fed FOMC decision and statement comes on Wednesday at 18.00 GMT
Yellen won't be firing that starting gun anytime soon says Bofa . And me
