What to watch on the forex economic calendar in the week ahead
1. US Feb retail sales
Time: Thursday at 1330 GMT
The non-farm payrolls report showed us that the 'consensus' estimate might have been higher than the market was expecting. All the talk of winter weather probably had the market priced for a miss so the strong data sparked a big reaction. It will be a similar story with retail sales, which are expected to rise 0.4%. The weather isn't the only reason to expect a miss on the headline results, vehicle sale were very soft in February and that's a downside risk. The market will be closely watching the reading excluding autos and gas, which is expected up 0.3%.
2. Eurozone industrial production
Time: Tuesday at 0745 GMT (France), 0900 GMT (Italy), 1000 GMT (Eurozone)
Eurozone economic data has been quietly improving but with 1 trillion euros in the ECB pipeline and the Fed headed toward hiking rates, it hasn't been reflected in the market. It will be interesting to monitor that dynamic and this data set is a good spot to watch. Two-thirds of eurozone exports are within the region so a soft currency might not be the type of immediate boost seen elsewhere. Then again, if it's strong it points to better domestic demand.
The consensus is for a 0.2% rise in the m/m seasonally adjusted eurozone reading.
3. Canadian Feb employment
Time: Friday at 1330 GMT
It was a dream week for Canadian dollar bulls that turned into a nightmare. Betting on a less-dovish BOC was a great trade but it was washed out by an unstoppable move in the US dollar. The only place to trade the loonie at the moment is on the crosses. The main risk for this report is weather. Canadians are hardy people but February 2015 was the coldest February on record in both Toronto and Montreal so watch out for a weak reading.
The consensus is for a 5.0K loss in jobs and unemployment ticking up to 6.7% from 6.6%.
4. UK industrial production
Time: Wednesday at 0930 GMT
February was a great month for the cable longs as the pound made steady gains. But it just one week of March the move has virtually evaporated. Surveys have shown improvement and there won't be much UK data to chew on in the week ahead. The consensus is for a modest 0.2% m/m increase.
5. Chinese CPI
Time: Tuesday 0230 GMT
China may be closer to a required reserve ratio cut than the market believed. The February CPI report is expected up just 1.0% y/y and that's plenty low. Chinese industrial production and retail sales are also due later in the week.
6. Eurogroup meeting
Time: Monday whenever leaders get around to it
It's been two weeks since Greece was in the headlines but it will end on Monday as Eurozone leaders meet. There's talk of a third bailout and Greece continues to press for concessions.Greek finance minister Varoufakis sent a letter ahead of the meeting to Dijsselbloem to talk about reforms. The meeting will be more about the nitty-gritty of the deal and that's not a major concern for markets but if the rhetoric ramps up and there is some inflammatory talk, then it will be a fresh reason to sell the euro.
Others to watch:
U Mich consumer sentiment inflation expectations on Friday. The market is laser-focused on inflation and that metric could overshadow the main headline.
Canadian housing starts on Monday. The market is worried about trouble in Canadian housing, especially in the oil patch.
For the full list of events, check out our forex economic calendar.
Update: For shame! I forgot the RBNZ decision on Thursday (Wed afternoon in the US). Wheeler is finally getting some of the kiwi weakness he's been pining for.
