US ratings agency out with their latest thoughts on Brexit 16 May 2016
Lest we forget that the EU referendum is not just about the future of the UK.
- we would not expect to take any immediate negative rating actions on other EU sovereigns if UK left
- negative actions would become more likely in medium term if economic impact were severe or significant political risks materialised
- EU countries could gain from shift of some FDI from UK to EU
- Brexit could precipitate Scotland leaving the UK which might intensify secessionist pressures in other parts of EU such as Catalonia in Spain
- Brexit could boost ant-EU,other populist political parties, make EU leaders reluctant to implement unpopular policies with long-term economic benefits
Put that lot all into the giant Brexit mixing bowls marked " Confused" and/or " Conjecture"
Meanwhile GBP on the back foot again with GBPUSD down to 3-week lows of 1.4333