US ratings agency out with their latest thoughts on Brexit 16 May 2016

Lest we forget that the EU referendum is not just about the future of the UK.

  • we would not expect to take any immediate negative rating actions on other EU sovereigns if UK left
  • negative actions would become more likely in medium term if economic impact were severe or significant political risks materialised
  • EU countries could gain from shift of some FDI from UK to EU
  • Brexit could precipitate Scotland leaving the UK which might intensify secessionist pressures in other parts of EU such as Catalonia in Spain
  • Brexit could boost ant-EU,other populist political parties, make EU leaders reluctant to implement unpopular policies with long-term economic benefits

Put that lot all into the giant Brexit mixing bowls marked " Confused" and/or " Conjecture"

Meanwhile GBP on the back foot again with GBPUSD down to 3-week lows of 1.4333