Talking in Philly

Chair Yellen is due to speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia's luncheon.

Coming off the weaker than expected employment report on Friday where 38K jobs were created with a -58K revision to the prior two months, the 3 month average of jobs is down to 110K. Brexit concerns remain a fluid situation.

For the EURUSD, the pair has been trading above and below the 50% retracement of the May 2016 range which saw the price fall from around 1.1600 to 1.1100. That level comes in at 1.1356. The high today is 1.1370. The low is 1.1330. That is not a huge range. Key support for me, remains against the 1.1295-1.1300 area. There is resistance above at the 1.13757. That was the swing high from Feb 2016. The price moved down to 1.0830 from that peak. A break above opens the door to 1.1417 with really key resistance at the 1.1435 to 1.1465 arae.

For the USDJPY, the price has corrected in trading today - moving to the 38.2% of the move down from Friday's high to the post employment low. The 107.64 and 107.73 is a topside ceiling that I am looking for as a ceiling IF the sellers really like the downside (risk for shorts - see chart below). Move above that area (and stay above) and the buyers and sellers will be more balanced. The 107.64 has been a level going back to early April. In late April and early May, the price broke below and then broke back above. On Friday, falling below gave sellers more confidence.

We will see what Yellen brings us.

PS S&P is up 0.33%. Nasdaq is up 0.37%. 10 year yield is 2.541%. 2 year yield is 0.8073%