Comments from the Fed's Williams in New York:

  • Expects GDP growth of about 2%
  • Lower inflation expectations somewhat worrying
  • US economy to face some headwinds from abroad
  • US is basically at full employment
  • Sees inflation moving to 2% over next year or two
  • Wages have been puzzling part of US economy
  • Sees encouraging signs that wages are picking up
  • Sees 2-3 hikes this year, 3-4 in 2017
  • Fed leaving balance sheet as it is for now
  • Balance sheet will organically shrink over time

I have to believe that Williams is playing some kind of game with the estimation of that many hikes. Maybe he thinks that the Fed has lost so much credibility that it has to over-promise hikes to get the market to believe in 1-2 moves this year?

Either way, it doesn't do much for Fed credibility.