Mester on Bloomberg TV:
- We've built in a weaker path for Chiina in our forecasts
- I don't see China as a significant risk
- Direct US-China trade is not that critical
- I don't view myself as a hawk/dove
- I certainly think a gradual series of hikes fits with my view
- Sees growth at 2.5% to 2.75% in 2016
- I expect headline inflation to stay quite weak for a time to come but core inflation is behaving about as expected
- My outlook forecast is a bit stronger than some
- We want normalization underway before ending reinvestment
- Medium path of Fed projections a good proxy for 'gradual'
Mester is a hawk and an optimist. There's nothing too surprising here. Most Fed members are confident in their forecasts even as the Atlanta Fed slashes its Q4 GDP forecast to +0.7%.
