Federal Reserve - BNP's "base case" is for a December rate hike

BNP's outlook for the FOMC through to the end of this year:

• Their "base case" is a December rate hike
• BNP do caution though "unless there is a shock to the markets or the economy before then"
• Dec probability they put at 65%. They say that will increase as we approach the December meeting "and as the window narrows for some unforeseen development that could stymie" the move

BNP cite:

• September statement said risks to the economy were roughly balanced ... and in December 2015 the hike came after a 'balanced' description of the economic risks
• Regional Fed's favour a hike
• NY Fed President Dudley says he expects a hike this year
• Evans (Chicago Fed and a strong dove) says he's "fine" with hike in 2016