The big question for the Fed is December

The chance of a rate hike from Yellen tomorrow is 22%. That's high enough to cause some serious volatility if the Fed stands pat but it's not high enough to leave anyone shocked or surprised if they stand pat.

More intriguing is how the Fed managers expectations going forward. The Nov 2 meeting, less than a week before the election, is widely seen as off-the-table so all the focus is on December.

For the Dec 14 meeting, the probability of a hike is at 58.2% now. That's up from 51.5% on Sept 7 and from 40.8% on August 10.

It's tough to imagine the Fed will hint at anything besides data dependence but they will also want to avoid allowing the market to be complacent.

For more on the Fed, see: The Federal Reserve is at the Hotel California