Draghi acknowledging growth and lack of second round effects could underpin the euro

The ECB forecasts haven't shot to the moon and there will be no let up in QE for years to come, yet the recovery is happening and other countries are starting to see activity pick up. It never takes much to switch sentiment in the Euro, and it's come back again and again from defeat.

The Fed and USD will still weight heavily but in the moments when that's not in focus, those are the moments when old Teflon will go up.

We may see some of that after the presser if traders are just waiting to clear any further comment risk before making their move. On balance there's more reason to buy the euro than sell it so far. I'm not saying it's going to jump 100 pips but that the downside may be the tougher road.