EUR/CHF back into the danger zone

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

Strange days in EUR/CHF with rumor central yesterday and then some large purchases from a UK clearer overnight. Pulses are thumping a bit faster with the pair down to a low of 1.2006.

I find it hard to believe that someone with an inside tip about SNB action on the weekend would be so foolhardy as to buy billions of dollars at once, moving the market when patient buys would get better fills.

The chart shows downward momentum but it puts the market back where it was early on Thursday so nothing has really changed.

If you think there is a spec of truth in the rumors, it’s better to be long.But here is why I wouldn’t be: if the SNB did have plans for weekend action, they would be shelving them right now because of the the perception they were leaked. After the Mrs. Hildebrand fiasco, they can’t have any more questions.

Shorts still don’t make sense to me in the near term. The peg is hugely popular in Switzerland and they don’t seem to care about the cost. In the longer-term shorts may start to make sense in a euro-breakup panic… but there will be lots of way to make money with that scenario.