New Zealand data to kick us off soon, but first ... the overnight news:
- Fonterras Global Dairy Price index falls 7.4% at the recent auction
Which was a bit more of a fall than was broadly expected ... and the NZD fell away (and has staged a small bounce as I update).
At 2145GMT we get quarterly employment data from NZ:
Unemployment rate for Q3
- expected is 6.0%, prior was 5.9%
Employment change q/q
- expected +0.4%, prior was +0.3%
Employment change y/y
- expected +2.5%, prior was +3.0%
Participation rate
- expected is 69.3%, prior was 69.3%
Average hourly earnings
- expected +1.1%, prior was 1.2%
Private wages including overtime for Q4
- expected 0.5%, prior was 0.5%
Private wages excluding overtime
- expected is 0.5%, prior was 0.5%
The employment report is a market focus. With high immigration numbers the growth of employment, while strong, needs to be stronger if its to keep unemployment from rising. The expected y/y employment growth at 2.5% is not as strong as it was previously (3% ... see figures above). Anything less than 2.5% will be a disappointment and is likely to fuel thoughts of an RBNZ cut in December, particularly after the fall in dairy prices overnight. This would leave the NZD as a sell into bounces. There are other variables, of course, but that's a base line to work from.
