Its a big day for Japanese market events today, with tier 1 data, the Bank of Japan meeting (& Kuroda news conference), and updated forecasts
Data kicks us off - note its due at 2330GMT, not the regular 2350GMT
- Overall Household Spending y/y for September, expected is +1.1%, prior was +2.9%
- Jobless Rate for September, expected is 3.4%, prior was 3.4%
- Job-To-Applicant Ratio for September, expected is 1.24, prior was 1.23
Also ... and, of course, a key focus ... Inflation data for September and October
National CPI y/y for September,
- expected is 0.0%, prior was 0.2%
National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food for September,
- expected is -0.2%, prior was -0.1%
National CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for September,
- expected is 0.9%, prior was 0.8%
Tokyo CPI y/y for October, (Tokyo CPI data is available a month earlier than the National CPI)
- expected is 0.0%, prior was -0.1%
Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food y/y for October,
- expected is -0.2%, prior was -0.2%
Tokyo CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for October,
- expected is +0.5%, prior was +0.6%
(While we're talkin' inflation ... there are signs that it is higher than official figures are showing ... you be the judge)
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The inflation data expected today will be the final economic information input for the Bank of Japan meeting. If you're in Tokyo, I suggest keeping an eye on the BOJ conference room where the monetary policy board meeting is being held. If, at 2330GMT, a chair or two comes flying out a smashed window it'll give you a feel for sentiment at the BOJ regarding hitting that elusive 2% target.
OK ... back to it ...
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I'll have more on the BOJ meeting coming up, but in brief:
- Today's is a one day meeting, not the regular 2-day affair
- The announcement at the end of the meeting may thus be later than the 0230 to 0330GMT time window we are accustomed to (there is no firm scheduled time for the announcement).
- The decision today is perceived in the market to be a close call ... for further easing or not. It was at the equivalent one-day October meeting last year that the BOJ sprung a surprise boost to their stimulus on the market ... so that's why expectations are higher for today than otherwise (that's what passes for 'analysis' :-D ).
- The BOJ will also issue revised forecasts (again, I'll be back with more on this) in their Semi Annual Outlook Report today.
- Finally ... at 0630GMT Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will do his regular post-meeting press conference.
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For more: Forex technical analysis: USDJPY higher into BOJ decision. What levels are key and why?
