Full release of the ECB's June economic forecasts

The shift up in 2016 growth is about as good as it got for the forecasts, with some of the other main components going the other way.

Here's the full rundown of the main points;

GDP

  • 2016 1.6% vs 1.4% in March

  • 2017 1.7% vs 1.7% in March

  • 2018 1.7% vs 1.8% in March

HICP

  • 2016 0.2% vs 0.1% prior

  • 2017 1.3% vs 1.3% prior

  • 2018 1.6% vs 1.8% prior

Private consumption

  • 2016 1.7% vs 1.9% prior

  • 2017 1.7% vs 1.8% prior

  • 2018 1.5% vs 1.6% prior

Based on EURUSD at

  • 2016 1.13 vs 1.11 prior

  • 2017 1.14 vs 1.12 Prior

  • 2018 1.14 vs 1.12 prior

Global GDP Ex-EZ

  • 2016 3.1% vs 3.2% prior

  • 2017 3.7% vs 3.8% prior

  • 2018 3.8% vs 3.9% prior

The euro is just a reflective price as detailed;

"Bilateral exchange rates are assumed to remain unchanged over the projection horizon at the average levels prevailing in the two-week period ending on the cut-off date of 10 May. The effective exchange rate of the euro (against 38 trading partners) is assumed to be 0.6% weaker over the projection horizon than assumed in the March exercise."

Part of the technical assumptions focus on oil and they see that higher than in March at $43.40, $49.10 & $51.30 for 2016/17/18. That up around $8 from March for 2016/17 and $6 for 2018.

Overall there's not much here that's bullish and certainly backs up Draghi's tone on downside risks etc.