China trade data due today - preview

September trade data from China is due today - the timing is a little flexible - look for it around 0200 GMT

I posted this preview earlier

This now via Société Générale

Export growth, in RMB terms, likely rebounded from 6.9% yoy in August to 15.2% yoy in September, with an above-average mom rate of 4% for the month of September.

• The export order index in the official manufacturing PMI survey improved from 50.4 to a four-month high of 51.3, and Korea's trade growth came in very strong in September, suggesting that the electronics cycle remained alive and kicking.
• Import growth, in RMB terms, probably also picked up from 14.4% yoy in August to 19.6% yoy in September, due to both higher commodity inflation over the month and robust capital goods imports connected to the electronics cycle.
• Furthermore, both exports and imports were likely boosted by the fact that companies likely rushed to trade before the week-long National Holiday break.

In my earlier post I mentioned another reason to look for a better export number today.

Another thing to keep in mind is the National Congress beginning next week. Expect support going into this.