The bank is looking for a result quite a lot lower than the consensus forecast
- To 6.4% y/y
- The previous was 6.9% (for Q3), while the consensus forecast is at 6.9% (see my preview, here)
More:
We expect real GDP growth to moderate quite sharply
The moderation would largely reflect a much smaller contribution from financial services (reflecting the slump in the equity market)
However, growth in the rest of the economy should be similar to Q3, as weakness in mining, construction and heavy industry are largely countered by stronger public infrastructure spending, consumption and services
On the other data for release simultaneously with GDP:
Also, the December data should show a slowdown in industrial production growth after the unexpected and likely unsustainable rebound in November
By contrast, retail sales growth may rise on higher inflation and resilient domestic consumption
We also expect fixed asset investment growth to tick up, led by infrastructure investment
Overall, the timelier monthly data are likely to signal that growth is stabilising (albeit at a low level and likely only temporarily), underpinned by the cumulative policy easing measures and consistent with the strongerthan-expected trade and total social financing data for December
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Bolding is mine
