Some US manufacturing surveys have been dismal, others have been solid
Here is a roundup of the regional and national manufacturing PMIs so far:
- Empire Fed -14.92 vs +3.86 prior
- Philly Fed +6.5 vs +5.7 prior
- Markit manufacturing PMI 53.8 vs 53.8 prior
- Richmond Fed 0 vs +13 prior
- KC Fed -9 vs -7 prior
Today's Chicago PMI is the final regional number ahead of tomorrow's ISM manufacturing report (exp at 52.5 vs 52.7 prior).
The consensus for today's release is 54.4 vs 54.7 prior. Estimates range from 51.0 to 57.5.
I'm surprised there isn't a single estimate below 50.0. In four of the past six months we've been below that level and regional numbers haven't been encouraging. With an estimate of 54.5, Nomura says its reasoning is that details of the previous report were "quite positive as many of the sub-indexes, notably for production and new orders showed sizable gains. The stronger-than-expected July number was a good sign that businesses are adjusting to the headwinds that troubled them earlier in the year."
It's due at 15 minutes before the top of the hour (1345 GMT).
Update: There is some chatter about a weak number and bonds are rallying.
