Last month revised lower to 0.05 from 0.16
The Chicago Fed National Activity index which draws on 85 economic indicators, was positive at 27 in July. THe June reading came in at 0.05 (revised from 0.16).
The 3-month average is -0.10 that is up from -0.19% in June. A year ago the index the 3 month average was -0.02 and in January 2016 it was at -0.17.
The index is the work of James Stock of Harvard and Mark Watson of Princeton University. According the to the professors, "A number greater than 0.20 following a period of economic contraction then there is a significant likelihood that a recession has ended."
The number this month is above the 0.20 level but it has been up and down for sure.
This month 53 of 85 were positive
