Monthly Canadian GDP data from Statistics Canada

  • September GDP was +0.3% (revised to +0.4%)
  • +1.5 y/y GDP vs expected +1.8%
  • Prior y/y GDP was +1.9%

That's a big miss and sent USD/CAD above the late-November cluster of highs and to the best level since Nov 16.

The driver was weakness in the goods-producing sector, especially manufacturing. In year-over year terms, Canadian manufacturing is contracted 0.2%. That's a far cry from what BOC leader Stephen Poloz had forecast as the Canadian dollar fell.

Yesterday's strong retail sales number helped to buffer the weakness in the overall data but all it did was prevent a weak report from being a dismal one.