Canada September Retail Sales and October CPI data points are coming up on Friday, due at 1330GMT

Retail Sales for September:

  • m/m expected at +0.1%, prior was +0.5%
  • Retail Sales excl. autos m/m .... expected is -0.4% and prior flat at 0.0% change

CPI for October:

  • CPI NSA m/m, expected is +0.1%, prior was -0.2%
  • CPI y/y, expected is 1.0%, prior was 1.0%
  • CPI Core m/m, expected is 0.2%, prior was 0.2%
  • CPI Core y/y, 2.0%, 2.1%

Preview (via RBC):

  • Expect nominal Canadian retail sales declined 0.2% in September
  • The bulk of the nominal sales decline in September is expected to be accounted for by a pullback in gasoline prices that we expect will send gasoline station receipts down almost 5% in the month
  • We expect some offset from an 8th consecutive monthly rise in motor vehicle sales
  • We expect the headline CPI inched up 0.1% in October which would be enough to push the year-over-year rate of growth up modestly to 1.1% from 1.0% in September
  • The October headline monthly increase was likely limited by a 2.3% drop in gasoline prices with a 17% year-over-year decline in prices at the pump still the main factor restraining headline year-over- year rates
  • We expect core CPI to rise by 0.3% on a month-over-month basis in October. That would match the monthly increase a year ago to leave the year-over-year rate of core price growth unchanged at 2.1% and thus mark the 15th consecutive month that core CPI inflation has exceeded the Bank of Canada's 2% target, albeit modestly so
  • The month-over-month change in core prices is assumed to reflect mainly seasonal increases in motor vehicle (1.8%) and clothing (1.2%) prices with added support from the lagged impact of past depreciation in the Canadian dollar. The main source of partial offset is expected to be a seasonal 5% drop in travel services prices