November manufacturing kicks on the US of A today
At the bottom of the hour we get our first look at the state of the US manufacturing sector by way of the Empire State manufacturing
In itself it's not that big an indicator but it's one I like to watch as it's the first of the new month and is often a good indicator of how the rest of the month is going to pan out
We know manufacturing has been down in the dumps after dropping from heady heights in 2014. The main ISM is clinging onto expansion by the skin of it's teeth at 50.1 in October
The Empire index has managed to bounce from the lowest number since 2009, in August, at -14.92, to -11.36. Today we're expecting -6.20
US manufacturing: Empire vs ISM
Although not a big part of the GDP picture, any decent pick up into the year end will be a big boost to the Dec rate trade. Virtually every other part of the US economy is steady, or good in the case of jobs, and this is the weak link
If it stays negative then perhaps the thoughts of a good improvement will put on the back burner for another month. IF we see it turn positive then that's going to bring some excitement that we see broader manufacturing improving
It will take more than one big month to say that manufacturing is fixed but with the market ready to jump on any data that adds to the Dec FOMC debate, be ready for a decent move on a surprise or big variation
