The Guardian newspaper out with an article this morning
Says the Grauniad (old-skool ref for some of our readers):
"Consensus is growing among pro- and anti-EU campaigners that the referendum on Britain's membership of the bloc will not be held until September, amid signs that a deal on David Cameron's reform proposals will be delayed until March.
As the prime minister faced calls from Viktor Orbán, his Hungarian counterpart, to alter his proposal to ban EU citizens from claiming in-work benefits for four years, sources on both sides played down the prospect of a deal by No 10's preferred date of February"
The next EU summits are scheduled for Feb 18-19 and March 17-18 and any deal will need to be signed off before Cameron can call the referendum and allow enough time for both sides to campaign. At least 16 weeks have to elapse between the conclusion of the negotiations and the referendum to allow for the passage, over a period of four to six weeks, of secondary legislation setting the rules of the campaign.
Previous estimates were for June and even March this year even though the cut-off date is not until 2017 and recently Cameron has made a major concession to his MPs for a free vote.
I reported that on these pages and this week it's been the Dave and Angela love-in with a gushing Cameron saying he was making real progress.
The reality is that he's a long way from delivering anything of substance and the chances of a No vote therefore increase. However as we saw in this year's UK election homo sapien is a scared and conservative species at heart and a Yes vote still looks the likelier outcome.
The pound will continue to feel the negative effect of the uncertainty.
The Guardian story can be found here
