If you can get the FT (its gated) this is an interesting read (its from last week).

It says:

  • under no circumstances will Britain leave Europe, regardless of the result of the referendum on June 23

The author of the piece goes on:

  • Britain looks unlikely to exit Europe even if its citizens voted to do so
  • Instead, the government would probably do just what EU members - Denmark, France, Ireland and the Netherlands - have always done after such votes. It would negotiate a new agreement, nearly identical to the old one, disguise it in opaque language and ratify it.
  • Eurosceptics have shown themselves to be the craftiest political illusionists of all. Now that Brexit appears within their grasp, they are backing away from it. What they really seek is domestic political power.

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I'd add that its not just political theatre, the whole Brexit debate is the front-runner for the award of the 'currency war' weapon of the year. But maybe i'm a cynic.