BOJ semi annual economic outlook report
- Sees Core CPI at 0.1% vs 0.7% FY2015
- Core CPI 1.4% vs 1.9% FY2016
- Core CPI 1.8% unch FY2017
- Says timing on hitting CPI target dependent on oil prices
- Inflation to accelerate as impact of oil fades
- CPI forecasts exclude effects of sales tax increases
- FY2015 GDP now seen at 1.2% vs 1.7% prior
- FY2016 1.4% vs 1.5% prior
- FY2017 0.3% vs 0.2% prior
- BOJ will continue easing until stable 2% inflation
- Will check risks and adjust policy as needed
Says economy is likely to grow above its potential (they say that in the same breath they cut their GDP forecasts)Looks like Bloomberg made that line up as they've just pulled it- Virtuous economic cycle likely to be maintained
- Sees potential growth rate of around 0.5% or lower
- Inflation expectations are rising from longer term view
- Still sees considerable uncertainties for price scenarios
- Risks are skewed to downside for prices and growth
- CPI trend is steadily improving
- Wage improvement pace has been slow
- Sees the mechanism for CPI to rise with wage growth
- Risks to economy includes effect of sales tax hikes in 2017
Here's the full release from the BOJ
USDJPY has dipped below 121.00 to 120.83. If we now hold below 121.00 that would suggest we see some further downside
Now I get the coffee on as we await the presser with Kuroda at half past
