A Bloomberg survey on 41 economists from 5-7 December
- Three rate hikes seen in 2018: March, September, December
- Fed's growth forecast likely to be revised to 2.3% from 2.1% than in September's meeting projections
- The revision in forecast comes from the new tax plan and faster global growth
- 63% of respondents say risks to monetary policy is to the upside
- 90% of respondents expect future path of interest rates over the next 2 years to be "about the same" under Powell, as compared to Yellen
- 45% said an external economic/financial shock would present the greatest risk to markets in 2018
Meanwhile, 39 of 41 respondents expect 2018 inflation to run around 1.9% based on the core PCE inflation reading, while they expect GDP growth to come in around 2.3% next year.
The key takeaway is that pretty much everyone expects Powell to approach future meetings in a similar fashion as Yellen. The Fed has done well to manage market expectations in the past, maybe too well at times, and it puts them in a place where they have not much flexibility in their decision - when the market is so unanimous in its expectation of a rate hike during meetings with a press conference.
For now, everyone expects Powell to adopt a similar approach. But we'll only really know if he decides to shake things up when he officially comes on board and Yellen waves goodbye.