Yes ladies and gentlemen, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet on December 10 (local time)

Commentary from ASB ... in brief:

  • We expect a 25 basis point OCR cut at the December MPS, largely due to the recent lift in the TWI.
  • We have a much weaker medium-term view of underlying inflation pressures than the RBNZ.
  • We 'expect' an unchanged 2.6% end point for the RBNZ's 90-day rate forecast, although we 'hope' it may be lower.

In our view, the lift in the TWI since the September MPS means a rate cut in December should be a done deal. At the October OCR review the RBNZ said "The exchange rate has been moving higher since September, which could, if sustained, dampen tradables sector activity and medium-term inflation. This would require a lower interest rate path than would otherwise be the case."

I'll have more on the RBNZ as we approach the meeting