Barclays NFP preview (spoiler +175K, 4.4%, 0.3% m/m & 2.7% y/y, 34.4hrs)

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Barclays non-farm payroll preview, in brief. They are a tad under the median forecast for the headline, but relatively upbeat nonetheless:

  • We forecast nonfarm employment to rise by 175k in May, in line with its recent average
  • Payrolls surprised to the downside in March due, in our view, to warm weather early in the year that may have pulled some hiring forward into January and February and adverse weather in some regions of the country in March
  • The rebound in April employment suggests these factors have largely played out and, alongside claims data that show some improvement in the separation side of the market, point to another month of solid employment growth
  • Unemployment rate to hold at 4.4%
  • Average hourly earnings to rise by 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y
  • Hours worked to be unchanged at 34.4

   
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