The BOJ have radically changed their meeting schedule for 2016
From what seemed like a meeting e very 3 weeks or so last year this year there are only 8!
The first is happening now, and continues tomorrow.
One thing that won't be changing is the time of the post-meeting announcement - i.e of the new policy actions (if any). The time of the announcement is still not scheduled, it'll be whenever the BOJ has finished (usually in the 0230to0330GMT time window). One thing that is scheduled, though, is Governor Kuroda's post-meeting press conference, which will be at 0630GMT on Friday (free pizza for everyone who attends, tickets from scalpers at the door).
The latest Bloomberg survey has 6 forecasts for more easing tomorrow
- 34 are not expecting any action tomorrow (though some see it in March or April)
What the BOJ will be considering, in brief:
Inflation is still well short of its 2% target ... Falling oil prices weighing on headline inflation, core inflation is better and the BOJ is considering using its own measure
Exports, production (industrial production may have expanded in Q4 but Q3 was weak), household consumption all relatively weak
The labor market is looking brighter, but Shunto wage negotiations are a risk - the government and bank would like to see pay hikes
The yen has been rising (a line in the sand at 115?), threatening tourism, exports A9nd thereby corporate profits in yen)
Recent global market turbulence
While no easing is generally expected, the BOJ may cut its inflation forecast for this year and extend its time frame for getting to 2%, it may also shade lower its growth forecasts.
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After the meeting there are a number of events that could lead to easing becoming likely in the near future:
- Better than expected wage hikes from the Shunto negotiations
- If USD/JPY drops below 115 and stays down around there
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ps. I posted an earlier preview here: Look ahead to Friday and the BOJ meeting - preview from BoA/ML
