Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy Board meeting back in the first week of this month.
Quick headlines Via Reuters :
- A rising AUD could complicate economic transition, noted it had recently fallen vs US$
- Taking into account latest data, judged steady policy right for growth, inflation
- Balancing benefits of low rates against risks to household debt from further easing
- Data suggested Q3 GDP growth would be weaker than expected
- Considerable uncertainty about momentum in labour market, still saw excess capacity
- Inflation expected to stay low for some time before rising to more normal levels
- Housing market had strengthened overall, noted tighter lending rules and higher fixed rates
- Higher commodity prices pointed to another rise in terms of trade for Q4
- Drag from mining investment to lessen, export volumes to add to growth
- Members noted international background more positive, still risks to outlook
- Global inflation outlook more balanced than in some time
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There you go.
The Bank says there is still slack in the labour market, and uncertainty about employment growth momentum. And that inflation is still expected to stay lowe (sorry, that should be spelt low) for some time.
I'm therefore gonna draw the conclusion that there is still scope to lower the cash rate. Not that the bank is saying that, that's just my conclusion.
No smoking gun for a February cut in these notes though, IMO.
I'll be watching the data flow over the next month and a half though (next RBA meeting is Feb. 7)
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Full text is here: Minutes of the December 2016 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board
