On Wednesday I posted the view from NAB: "real risk that Q1 GDP could print a flat or even a small negative"

National Australia Bank's warning came on the back of the data earlier in the day: Australia - Construction Work done for Q1: -0.7% q/q (expected -0.5%)

The thing about the 'construction work' data is its an input to GDP, so the disappointment raised a flag on Q1 GDP. And, the next thing is, there are plenty of these indicators to the GDP to come over the next few weeks, these are referred to as 'partials'. For example,

  • Q1 Capex (Private Capital Expenditure) is due Thursday June 1
  • Q1 Inventories & Company Profits is due Monday June 5
  • Q1 BoP current account Tuesday 6th (net exports a part of this)

And, not a 'partial', but of note:

  • April (i.e. monthly) retail sales on 1 June

On June 7 we'll get the GDP number for Q1.

I'll have previews up on these as we approach.

OK, so about that headline to the post - NAB have already flagged the risk of a negative GDP print. I expect more of this to come (check out Business Insider on ANZ's thoughts here: ANZ thinks the brakes are on Australia's economy)

Poor data in the coming weeks will weigh on the Australian dollar, something to watch for. As for t/a ... check out the daily AUD/USD

I believe Thursday is called Engulfing Bear. Why is it you ask, Two Dogs?