Currency Outlook from ANZ this morning to open the week
Summary and any bolding mine:
AUD/USD:
- After failing to capitalise on the better data and small window of market calm, the AUD fell to fresh cycle lows after oil prices weakened further and stocks fell sharply
- Sentiment, rather than fundamentals, remains in control of markets and this keeps downside risks open
- This week, Chinese economic data remains the key
- Expected range: 0.6751 - 0.7017
AUD/NZD:
- The NZD held up well despite global market volatility dragging down a number of high beta currencies; this took the cross back towards 2016 lows
- AUD/NZD remains range-bound as global factors remain the focus. Expected range: 1.0582 - 1.0730
AUD/EUR:
- EUR outperformed to finish the week with safe haven flows dominating
- CFTC short futures positioning was also cut
- Expect the pair to be biased downwards
- Expected range: 0.6184 - 0.6401
AUD/JPY:
- The market extended net long JPY positions to the highest level since 2012 for the week ended 12 January
- Expect risk-off to keep this cross moving lower
- Expected range: 78.97 - 81.83
NZD/GBP:
- The market continues to price out monetary policy normalisation in the UK
- Until real UK data stabilises, expect the cross to be volatile and GBP to be biased toward weakening
- Expected range: 0.4707 - 0.4900
