Canadian CPI due at the bottom of the hour

The Bank of Canada has brushed aside a extended series of strong economic data points and remained insistent that the economy is muddling along with lots of slack in the labor force and no rush to hike.

They may get shaken off that stance if inflation beats estimates. The consensus numbers are +2.1% y/y and +0.2% m/m but the ones to watch are core.

A few months ago the BOC introduced a trio of core measures that strip out and normalize in different ways:

  • CPI common - prior +1.3% y/y
  • CPI media - prior +1.9% y/y
  • CPI trim - prior +1.7%

If those three tick higher, the market may begin to price in a shift at the BOC.

With USD/CAD trading just above the session high at 1.3353, a high number could start to run some stops and work its way towards 1.3300.