A preview of the US nonfarm payroll (NFP) due at 1330GMT on Friday 6 March 2015
This is from the Wall Street Journal and in their "5 things to watch" format, which I've paraphrased and summarised below:
1. Watch the trend
- U.S. economy added an average of 267,000 jobs each month over the past year
Month-to-month data can be volatile (and I expect it to be this month ... see the bolding below) ... but watch the trend!
2. Wage growth y/y is growing, but only modestly. Wage growth is a key sign of labourt market improvement (or labor market improvement if you're in the US)
3. Winter weather disrupted a broad swath of the US in February
- That may have curtailed hiring in weather-sensitive industries, such as construction
- The weather could have also depressed average hours worked per week (snow and school closures prevented some workers from reporting to their normal shifts)
4. Watch the labour-force participation rate for signs that increased hiring is drawing more back into the jobs market
5. Which industries add jobs in February will help influence other measures such as wage growth
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The article itself has some great graphs, and its ungated
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More previews here:
- Non-farm payrolls preview: By the numbers
- Video: Adam Button and Greg Michalowski preview the US employment report
